Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.58 – 201.24

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

372 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 91.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 708.2 ±10.2

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 4.91Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 147.78Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 117.89Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.3 ±11.1

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 40.57Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 17.26Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 143.41Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 949, 2046, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 949, 2046, 5937

Auto

77.3 29%

Teleop

141.7 54%

Endgame

43.7 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2903, 9442, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2903, 9442, 948

Auto

38.4 20%

Teleop

106.0 55%

Endgame

47.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score270.6pts

Blue projected score201.2pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.3
Score range: 166–306
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 654 vs event baseline 196.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

708.2Season APEX379.3

77.3Auto38.4

141.7Teleop106

43.7Endgame47.4

94Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	55
teleop	215	113
endgame	30	89
foul	20	25
total	372	282

Result

Final score

372 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 91.1 pts

Match videos

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