Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.85 – 218.67

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 4.91Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 121.42Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 104.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283 ±11.6

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 52.43Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 86.78Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 79.46Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 2412, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 2412, 2522

Auto

36.8 17%

Teleop

130.4 59%

Endgame

54.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5588, 2928, 8248

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5588, 2928, 8248

Auto

63.6 29%

Teleop

104.9 49%

Endgame

47.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score230.9pts

Blue projected score218.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.2
Score range: 184–266
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 196.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561.4Season APEX283

36.8Auto63.6

130.4Teleop104.9

54.4Endgame47.4

49Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	38
teleop	87	76
endgame	73	23
foul	15	5
total	203	142

Result

Final score

203 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 52.3 pts

Match videos

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