Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

176.84 – 74.76

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

257 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.4 ±10.8

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 60.1Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6350Clawbots

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 10Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 106.74Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±12.1

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 8.27Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 60.1Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 6.39Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 488, 6350, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 488, 6350, 2046

Auto

31.8 18%

Teleop

91.2 52%

Endgame

51.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4180, 4911, 9442

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4180, 4911, 9442

Auto

12.4 16%

Teleop

43.7 57%

Endgame

20.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score176.8pts

Blue projected score74.8pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.1
Score range: 42–210
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 182.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.4Season APEX205

31.8Auto12.4

91.2Teleop43.7

51.1Endgame20

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	15
teleop	172	100
endgame	35	49
foul	5	5
total	257	169

Result

Final score

257 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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