Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

328.37 – 110.5

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 649.4 ±9.3

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 123.09Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 122.68Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 82.6Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.5 ±11.6

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 6.66Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 60.61Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 43.23Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5937, 2522, 8248

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5937, 2522, 8248

Auto

60.8 19%

Teleop

176.2 56%

Endgame

76.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9442, 3681, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9442, 3681, 488

Auto

14.3 12%

Teleop

73.6 63%

Endgame

29.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score328.4pts

Blue projected score110.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217.9
Score range: 76–363
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 194.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

649.4Season APEX247.5

60.8Auto14.3

176.2Teleop73.6

76.9Endgame29.3

62Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	26
teleop	149	110
endgame	32	51
foul	0	5
total	226	192

Result

Final score

226 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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