Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

237.39 – 266.43

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540 ±10

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 75.52Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 19.68Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 142.19Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.4 ±11.7

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 136.2Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 92.63Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 37.6Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7461, 1983, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7461, 1983, 2046

Auto

67.6 30%

Teleop

114.4 51%

Endgame

44.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 9036, 3268

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2412, 9036, 3268

Auto

38.4 15%

Teleop

154.8 61%

Endgame

61.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.4pts

Blue projected score266.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29
Score range: 202–301
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 194.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540Season APEX370.4

67.6Auto38.4

114.4Teleop154.8

44.2Endgame61.9

47Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	30
teleop	76	84
endgame	81	5
foul	5	25
total	232	144

Result

Final score

232 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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