Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.31 – 323.13

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.2 ±12.2

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 75.99Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 3.5Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 25.82Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 503.8 ±10.5

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 89.88Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 87.89Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 145.36Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4911, 949, 2976

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4911, 949, 2976

Auto

28.4 28%

Teleop

44.6 44%

Endgame

28.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2928, 1318, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2928, 1318, 948

Auto

72.2 23%

Teleop

174.2 55%

Endgame

69.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.3pts

Blue projected score323.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -217.8
Score range: 70–358
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 194.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.2Season APEX503.8

28.4Auto72.2

44.6Teleop174.2

28.5Endgame69.2

74Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	113
teleop	58	106
endgame	19	27
foul	15	20
total	141	266

Result

Final score

141 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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