Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

137.23 – 191.23

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 80 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.7 ±12.1

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 59.81Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 25.32Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 52.1Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.5 ±11.1

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 54.45Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 80.11Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 56.67Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9317, 1899, 3681

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9317, 1899, 3681

Auto

32.2 25%

Teleop

66.4 52%

Endgame

28.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5588, 4469, 4180

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5588, 4469, 4180

Auto

16.7 9%

Teleop

111.1 59%

Endgame

61.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.2pts

Blue projected score191.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54
Score range: 102–226
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 194.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.7Season APEX424.5

32.2Auto16.7

66.4Teleop111.1

28.3Endgame61.7

60Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	18
teleop	127	83
endgame	42	16
foul	20	0
total	223	117

Result

Final score

223 – 117

Prediction missed · off by 80 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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