Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.78 – 158.99

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.8 ±11.1

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 10.24Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 80.47Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 127.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.2 ±11

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -10.64Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 78.81Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 90.82Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9442, 7461, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9442, 7461, 5937

Auto

46.4 23%

Teleop

109.9 54%

Endgame

49.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3826, 8248, 492

/ 100 compat

Projected

159 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 8248, 492

Auto

15.2 10%

Teleop

83.6 54%

Endgame

55.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.8pts

Blue projected score159pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.8
Score range: 124–253
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 194.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.8Season APEX304.2

46.4Auto15.2

109.9Teleop83.6

49.1Endgame55.3

83Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	55
teleop	82	57
endgame	37	68
foul	0	15
total	164	195

Result

Final score

164 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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