Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.97 – 154.1

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 78 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.1 ±10.5

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 81.68Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 71.9Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 19.39Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.4 ±9.8

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 3.27Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 139.45Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 11.38Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1318, 4469, 1899

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1318, 4469, 1899

Auto

28.8 18%

Teleop

96.2 60%

Endgame

35.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1294, 948, 1983

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 948, 1983

Auto

41.9 28%

Teleop

74.6 50%

Endgame

32.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173pts

Blue projected score154.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.9
Score range: 119–208
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 193.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.1Season APEX458.4

28.8Auto41.9

96.2Teleop74.6

35.2Endgame32.9

84Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	51
teleop	133	90
endgame	86	72
foul	0	20
total	250	233

Result

Final score

250 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 78 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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