Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

173.82 – 212.96

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.8 ±12.1

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 6.2Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 85.32Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 82.3Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 518.1 ±10.5

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 80.29Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 89.12Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 43.55Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3826, 9036, 2928

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 9036, 2928

Auto

52.5 33%

Teleop

72.0 45%

Endgame

34.3 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4911, 4469, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

213 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4911, 4469, 488

Auto

31.8 15%

Teleop

127.1 61%

Endgame

49.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.8pts

Blue projected score213pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.1
Score range: 138–249
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 199.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.8Season APEX518.1

52.5Auto31.8

72Teleop127.1

34.3Endgame49.2

76Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	23
teleop	77	109
endgame	48	60
foul	0	0
total	137	192

Result

Final score

137 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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