Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

174.63 – 358.09

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

234 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.7 ±11

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 76.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 55.45Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 42.47Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574.7 ±9.9

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 123.42Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 140.48Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 94.19Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8248, 4180, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8248, 4180, 488

Auto

19.9 11%

Teleop

106.3 61%

Endgame

48.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2522, 2412, 2928

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2522, 2412, 2928

Auto

57.2 16%

Teleop

209.6 60%

Endgame

85.0 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.6pts

Blue projected score358.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -183.5
Score range: 141–392
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 191.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.7Season APEX574.7

19.9Auto57.2

106.3Teleop209.6

48Endgame85

62Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	88
teleop	136	223
endgame	73	38
foul	0	5
total	234	354

Result

Final score

234 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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