Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.42 – 126.98

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.6 ±12.1

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 60.19Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 54.09Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -11.86Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.6 ±11.6

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 91.74Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 18.51Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 16.73Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9317, 5588, 3826

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9317, 5588, 3826

Auto

25.7 31%

Teleop

34.0 41%

Endgame

24.2 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9036, 2976, 9442

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9036, 2976, 9442

Auto

23.2 20%

Teleop

51.3 44%

Endgame

43.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.4pts

Blue projected score127pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.6
Score range: 67–162
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 192.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.6Season APEX257.6

25.7Auto23.2

34Teleop51.3

24.2Endgame43.3

51Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	28
teleop	73	33
endgame	26	40
foul	5	0
total	143	101

Result

Final score

143 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 33.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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