Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.53 – 189.16

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.4 ±11

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 86.41Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 76.44Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 72.68Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 667.5 ±10.7

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 67.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 126.28Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX -4.47Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 492, 1318, 4911

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 492, 1318, 4911

Auto

44.7 20%

Teleop

126.9 56%

Endgame

55.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4469, 5937, 949

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4469, 5937, 949

Auto

30.0 18%

Teleop

100.8 59%

Endgame

38.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score235.5pts

Blue projected score189.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.4
Score range: 155–270
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 559 vs event baseline 190.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.4Season APEX667.5

44.7Auto30

126.9Teleop100.8

55.8Endgame38.7

99Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	45
teleop	186	135
endgame	59	69
foul	0	5
total	305	254

Result

Final score

305 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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