Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.85 – 42.71

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

285 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 631.6 ±9.9

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 64.66Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 119.86Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 51.33Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.6 ±12.7

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 52.03Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX -3.74Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -5.58Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4469, 2522, 5588

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4469, 2522, 5588

Auto

41.8 19%

Teleop

113.4 51%

Endgame

66.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4180, 949, 3826

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4180, 949, 3826

Auto

2.6 9%

Teleop

14.5 48%

Endgame

13.3 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score235.8pts

Blue projected score42.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.1
Score range: 9–270
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 190.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

631.6Season APEX203.6

41.8Auto2.6

113.4Teleop14.5

66.6Endgame13.3

17Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	10
teleop	202	8
endgame	59	6
foul	0	10
total	285	34

Result

Final score

285 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 28.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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