Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.82 – 270.4

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 418.7 ±10.5

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 56.01Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 126.71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 26.1Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.3 ±10

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 30.83Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 135.9Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 103.67Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 488, 5937, 2903

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 488, 5937, 2903

Auto

34.6 18%

Teleop

130.7 67%

Endgame

29.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1983, 2046, 9036

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1983, 2046, 9036

Auto

64.2 25%

Teleop

146.1 56%

Endgame

49.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score208.8pts

Blue projected score270.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.6
Score range: 175–304
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 190.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

418.7Season APEX540.3

34.6Auto64.2

130.7Teleop146.1

29.1Endgame49.7

80Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	76
teleop	89	53
endgame	45	31
foul	0	25
total	178	185

Result

Final score

178 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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