Qualification · Qualification 4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
341.16 – 195.73
86%14%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
393 – 208
Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 693.8 ±8.8
Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 76.48Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 348Event APEX 148.57Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 116.11Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303.1 ±11.6
Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 81.81Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 63.98Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 49.94Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8248, 2046, 2412
85
/ 100 compatProjected
341.2 pts
~2.5 RP (district)
Teams: 8248, 2046, 2412
Auto
69.7 21%
Teleop
187.7 57%
Endgame
73.0 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 492, 8032, 5588
66
/ 100 compatProjected
195.7 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 492, 8032, 5588
Auto
41.9 21%
Teleop
112.0 56%
Endgame
47.3 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 68%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.09
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score341.2pts
Blue projected score195.7pts
Red win probability86%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 68%, blue 76%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 145.4
- Score range
- 160–377
- Upset likelihood
- 14%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
693.8Season APEX303.1
69.7Auto41.9
187.7Teleop112
73Endgame47.3
60Consistency85
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 58 | 26 |
| teleop | 208 | 99 |
| endgame | 107 | 68 |
| foul | 20 | 15 |
| total | 393 | 208 |
Result
Final score
393 – 208
Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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