Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.63 – 151.75

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.2 ±10

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 139.07Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 57.2Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 9.36Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.6 ±11.7

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 4.15Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 64.64Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 82.96Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2046, 4180, 1294

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2046, 4180, 1294

Auto

45.6 23%

Teleop

119.4 59%

Endgame

35.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 949, 488, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 949, 488, 1318

Auto

23.0 17%

Teleop

91.5 67%

Endgame

23.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score205.6pts

Blue projected score151.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.9
Score range: 118–240
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 189.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.2Season APEX353.6

45.6Auto23

119.4Teleop91.5

35.8Endgame23

67Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	35
teleop	79	54
endgame	22	6
foul	0	5
total	170	100

Result

Final score

170 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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