Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.2 – 246.73

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 98.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493 ±10.5

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 76.59Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 94.17Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 23.44Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.3 ±9.9

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 97.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 31.88Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 117.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4469, 492, 9442

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4469, 492, 9442

Auto

17.3 9%

Teleop

120.7 64%

Endgame

50.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2522, 5588, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2522, 5588, 948

Auto

49.9 21%

Teleop

125.7 53%

Endgame

61.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.2pts

Blue projected score246.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.5
Score range: 160–281
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 554 vs event baseline 187.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493Season APEX602.3

17.3Auto49.9

120.7Teleop125.7

50.8Endgame61.5

90Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	97
teleop	69	206
endgame	56	94
foul	0	5
total	152	402

Result

Final score

152 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 98.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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