Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.38 – 276.25

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

270 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.7 ±10.5

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 120.74Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 40.85Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 55.79Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.4 ±10.5

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 123.78Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 85.08Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 67.39Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2412, 1983, 4180

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2412, 1983, 4180

Auto

20.0 9%

Teleop

133.6 61%

Endgame

64.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5937, 1318, 9317

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5937, 1318, 9317

Auto

59.3 25%

Teleop

139.2 58%

Endgame

39.5 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.4pts

Blue projected score276.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.9
Score range: 183–310
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 186.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.7Season APEX479.4

20Auto59.3

133.6Teleop139.2

64.4Endgame39.5

105Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	56
teleop	152	137
endgame	66	68
foul	20	15
total	270	276

Result

Final score

270 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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