Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.74 – 239.96

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 106.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.3 ±11.7

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 19.07Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6350Clawbots

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 14.12Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 84.55Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 709.4 ±9.5

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 123.22Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 94.24Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 22.5Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 6350, 8248

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 6350, 8248

Auto

19.3 19%

Teleop

44.7 43%

Endgame

39.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2046, 948, 3681

/ 100 compat

Projected

240 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2046, 948, 3681

Auto

53.2 22%

Teleop

146.4 61%

Endgame

39.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.7pts

Blue projected score240pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -122.2
Score range: 85–273
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 571 vs event baseline 182.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.3Season APEX709.4

19.3Auto53.2

44.7Teleop146.4

39.7Endgame39.8

18Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	100
teleop	67	244
endgame	30	100
foul	5	0
total	127	444

Result

Final score

127 – 444

Prediction correct · off by 106.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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