Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.77 – 149.01

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.8 ±10.7

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 143.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 116.23Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 33.74Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.5 ±11.6

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 47.34Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 29.29Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3681Robo-Raiders

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 72.38Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 948, 5937, 3268

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 948, 5937, 3268

Auto

69.0 24%

Teleop

162.5 57%

Endgame

52.0 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4180, 2976, 3681

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4180, 2976, 3681

Auto

13.2 9%

Teleop

86.2 56%

Endgame

53.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score293.8pts

Blue projected score149pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.8
Score range: 113–330
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 199.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.8Season APEX257.5

69Auto13.2

162.5Teleop86.2

52Endgame53.2

51Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	17
teleop	182	71
endgame	56	18
foul	0	0
total	286	106

Result

Final score

286 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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