Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.07 – 129.29

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 275

Prediction missed · off by 111.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.7 ±12.2

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 64.87Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 45.41Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 83.79Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.6 ±11.1

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 32.03Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 41.96Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 55.3Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5588, 3268, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5588, 3268, 488

Auto

29.6 14%

Teleop

118.3 57%

Endgame

59.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2903, 2928, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2903, 2928, 4469

Auto

17.8 16%

Teleop

55.2 49%

Endgame

40.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.1pts

Blue projected score129.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.8
Score range: 96–227
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.7Season APEX452.6

29.6Auto17.8

118.3Teleop55.2

59.3Endgame40.3

76Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	48
teleop	46	173
endgame	32	54
foul	0	0
total	117	275

Result

Final score

117 – 275

Prediction missed · off by 111.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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