Qualification · Qualification 28
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
226.88 – 0
97%3%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
159 – 63
Prediction correct · off by 65.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±11
Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 59.93Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 83.1Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 83.85Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.8 ±11.6
Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -23.83Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 49.8Event APEX -5.53Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 115.4Event APEX -22.55Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1983, 4180, 492
76
/ 100 compatProjected
226.9 pts
~2.7 RP (district)
Teams: 1983, 4180, 492
Auto
31.3 14%
Teleop
120.5 53%
Endgame
73.9 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3826, 9442, 2976
18
/ 100 compatProjected
-51.9 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 3826, 9442, 2976
Auto
-7.4 15%
Teleop
-37.0 76%
Endgame
-4.6 9%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 72%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.73
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score226.9pts
Blue projected score-51.9pts
Red win probability97%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 72%, blue 63%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 226.9
- Score range
- -33–260
- Upset likelihood
- 3%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
294.5Season APEX202.8
31.3Auto-7.4
120.5Teleop-37
73.9Endgame-4.6
143Consistency125
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 11 | 17 |
| teleop | 127 | 23 |
| endgame | 21 | 18 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 159 | 63 |
Result
Final score
159 – 63
Prediction correct · off by 65.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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