Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

241.21 – 292.61

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

383 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 102.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.5 ±11.1

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 69.82Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 78.78Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 92.61Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 588.7 ±10

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 110.38Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 54.95Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 127.28Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 948, 9036, 7461

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 948, 9036, 7461

Auto

25.3 10%

Teleop

173.3 71%

Endgame

46.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1318, 8032, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1318, 8032, 2046

Auto

57.8 21%

Teleop

167.8 61%

Endgame

48.7 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score241.2pts

Blue projected score292.6pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.4
Score range: 209–325
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 613 vs event baseline 180.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.5Season APEX588.7

25.3Auto57.8

173.3Teleop167.8

46.7Endgame48.7

45Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	76
teleop	177	115
endgame	81	39
foul	45	0
total	383	230

Result

Final score

383 – 230

Prediction missed · off by 102.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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