Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.47 – 235.3

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 115.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.7 ±10

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 66.49Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 116.95Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX -3.97Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.1 ±11.6

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 94.32Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 61.03Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 79.95Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 492, 2046, 1899

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 492, 2046, 1899

Auto

55.5 32%

Teleop

82.2 47%

Endgame

35.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8032, 1983, 4911

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8032, 1983, 4911

Auto

31.7 14%

Teleop

124.4 54%

Endgame

75.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.5pts

Blue projected score235.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.8
Score range: 147–267
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 178.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568.7Season APEX305.1

55.5Auto31.7

82.2Teleop124.4

35.9Endgame75.6

139Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	37
teleop	179	41
endgame	36	28
foul	0	0
total	281	106

Result

Final score

281 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 115.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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