Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.2 – 263.24

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 108.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 622.9 ±9.9

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 13.91Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 117.04Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 44.25Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 663.6 ±9.5

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 128.71Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 4.17Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 130.36Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3826, 948, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3826, 948, 4469

Auto

23.3 13%

Teleop

102.1 59%

Endgame

47.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2046, 9442, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2046, 9442, 2522

Auto

42.9 17%

Teleop

161.8 66%

Endgame

41.6 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score175.2pts

Blue projected score263.2pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88
Score range: 142–296
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 184.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

622.9Season APEX663.6

23.3Auto42.9

102.1Teleop161.8

47.2Endgame41.6

143Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	55
teleop	4	114
endgame	12	18
foul	5	0
total	35	187

Result

Final score

35 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 108.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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