Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.64 – 148.14

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.7 ±11.6

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 97.78Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 6.2Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 68.66Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.7 ±11.7

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 35.01Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6350Clawbots

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 12.48Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 100.65Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1318, 3826, 7461

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1318, 3826, 7461

Auto

38.1 24%

Teleop

70.3 45%

Endgame

47.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1899, 6350, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1899, 6350, 2522

Auto

31.5 22%

Teleop

81.3 58%

Endgame

28.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.6pts

Blue projected score148.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.5
Score range: 112–209
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 199.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.7Season APEX380.7

38.1Auto31.5

70.3Teleop81.3

47.8Endgame28.3

84Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	39
teleop	86	45
endgame	44	24
foul	25	0
total	188	108

Result

Final score

188 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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