Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.46 – 187.97

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.6 ±12.8

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 51.11Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX -6.41Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 29.76Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.5 ±11.6

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 30.69Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 82.05Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 75.23Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3268, 2976, 949

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3268, 2976, 949

Auto

12.0 19%

Teleop

27.5 44%

Endgame

23.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9317, 488, 8032

/ 100 compat

Projected

188 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9317, 488, 8032

Auto

33.5 17%

Teleop

143.5 74%

Endgame

16.6 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.5pts

Blue projected score188pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -113.5
Score range: 40–222
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 187.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.6Season APEX317.5

12Auto33.5

27.5Teleop143.5

23.3Endgame16.6

159Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	39
teleop	1	138
endgame	29	44
foul	0	0
total	51	221

Result

Final score

51 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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