Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.85 – 211.89

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

285 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.7 ±10.5

9036Ramen Robotics

Season APEX 92.4Event APEX 57.12Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX -1.81Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 96.54Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.8 ±11.7

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 115.74Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4180Iron Riders

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 76.97Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6350Clawbots

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 19.18Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9036, 1294, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9036, 1294, 2522

Auto

18.1 11%

Teleop

85.1 52%

Endgame

59.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 948, 4180, 6350

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 948, 4180, 6350

Auto

39.9 19%

Teleop

143.7 70%

Endgame

22.6 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.9pts

Blue projected score211.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60
Score range: 119–245
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 181.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.7Season APEX366.8

18.1Auto39.9

85.1Teleop143.7

59.8Endgame22.6

184Consistency183

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	20
teleop	147	101
endgame	64	63
foul	40	0
total	285	184

Result

Final score

285 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 80.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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