Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.21 – 271.66

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301 ±12.2

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 35.1Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 19.59Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 44.52Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 638.5 ±9.5

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 95.98Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3826Sequim Robotics Federation "SRF"

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 37.45Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 138.23Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 949, 2928, 1983

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 949, 2928, 1983

Auto

7.2 8%

Teleop

50.3 57%

Endgame

31.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5937, 3826, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5937, 3826, 2046

Auto

48.7 18%

Teleop

147.9 56%

Endgame

67.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.2pts

Blue projected score271.7pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.5
Score range: 66–305
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 182.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301Season APEX638.5

7.2Auto48.7

50.3Teleop147.9

31.2Endgame67.4

15Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	71
teleop	44	109
endgame	34	23
foul	10	25
total	119	228

Result

Final score

119 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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