Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.05 – 141.38

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.3 ±10.5

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX -13.01Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1899Saints Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX -13.86Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 132.92Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.4 ±12.2

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 22.52Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3268Valhallabots

Season APEX 62.9Event APEX 51.05Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 67.81Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2976, 1899, 2412

/ 100 compat

Projected

106 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2976, 1899, 2412

Auto

25.3 28%

Teleop

46.4 51%

Endgame

20.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9442, 3268, 8248

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9442, 3268, 8248

Auto

29.1 20%

Teleop

63.1 44%

Endgame

52.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106pts

Blue projected score141.4pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.3
Score range: 73–174
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 184.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.3Season APEX243.4

25.3Auto29.1

46.4Teleop63.1

20Endgame52

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	13
teleop	82	71
endgame	57	48
foul	0	0
total	159	132

Result

Final score

159 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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