Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

212.33 – 121.43

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 128.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.5 ±11.7

6350Clawbots

Season APEX 30.1Event APEX 31.02Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 77.64Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 103.67Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.1 ±11.1

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 32.04Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 27.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8032SAASquatch Robotics

Season APEX 108.7Event APEX 62.33Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6350, 4911, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6350, 4911, 5937

Auto

26.9 13%

Teleop

132.9 64%

Endgame

47.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7461, 4469, 8032

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7461, 4469, 8032

Auto

19.5 17%

Teleop

60.8 52%

Endgame

36.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score212.3pts

Blue projected score121.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.9
Score range: 89–244
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 428 vs event baseline 178.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.5Season APEX508.1

26.9Auto19.5

132.9Teleop60.8

47.4Endgame36.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	26
teleop	57	192
endgame	1	79
foul	15	0
total	131	297

Result

Final score

131 – 297

Prediction missed · off by 128.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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