Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
168.12 – 141.95
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
115 – 186
Prediction missed · off by 48.6 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.4 ±11.6
Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 61.71Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 16.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 89.55Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.3 ±10.5
Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 67.02Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 37.6Event APEX 43.03Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 31.9Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3681, 1294, 5588
60
/ 100 compatProjected
168.1 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 3681, 1294, 5588
Auto
11.2 7%
Teleop
104.7 62%
Endgame
53.9 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2522, 3826, 1983
58
/ 100 compatProjected
142 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 2522, 3826, 1983
Auto
21.1 14%
Teleop
76.9 53%
Endgame
48.3 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.44
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score168.1pts
Blue projected score142pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 26.2
- Score range
- 109–201
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
222.4Season APEX403.3
11.2Auto21.1
104.7Teleop76.9
53.9Endgame48.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 44 |
| teleop | 44 | 77 |
| endgame | 52 | 65 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 115 | 186 |
Result
Final score
115 – 186
Prediction missed · off by 48.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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