Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.2 – 78.26

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 10.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.2 ±11.6

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 17.88Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9442Miso Mechanics

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 23.72Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2903NeoBots

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 39.6Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.3 ±12.2

949Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 107.3Event APEX 12.83Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 0.65Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9317SteamRollers

Season APEX 94.5Event APEX 64.78Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1983, 9442, 2903

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1983, 9442, 2903

Auto

13.2 18%

Teleop

26.1 36%

Endgame

33.9 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 949, 1294, 9317

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 949, 1294, 9317

Auto

28.6 47%

Teleop

15.1 25%

Endgame

17.1 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.2pts

Blue projected score78.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.9
Score range: 42–117
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 199.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.2Season APEX282.3

13.2Auto28.6

26.1Teleop15.1

33.9Endgame17.1

63Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	16
teleop	36	28
endgame	19	33
foul	0	0
total	61	77

Result

Final score

61 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 10.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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