Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.76 – 221.16

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 88 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 700.8 ±8.8

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 22.2Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 152.24Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 120.32Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 1.94Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 117.49Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 101.73Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1983, 2046, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1983, 2046, 5937

Auto

81.7 29%

Teleop

148.3 52%

Endgame

55.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1294, 2412, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 2412, 2522

Auto

36.2 17%

Teleop

118.6 56%

Endgame

55.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score294.8pts

Blue projected score221.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.6
Score range: 185–331
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 199.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

700.8Season APEX561.4

81.7Auto36.2

148.3Teleop118.6

55.3Endgame55.8

52Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	58
teleop	81	85
endgame	29	14
foul	10	10
total	173	167

Result

Final score

173 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 88 pts

Match videos

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