Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.87 – 232.55

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

183 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 60.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 700.8 ±8.8

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 23.93Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 153.8Rank 1Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 122.14Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.4 ±9.3

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 5.6Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 121.66Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 105.29Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1983, 2046, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1983, 2046, 5937

Auto

83.8 29%

Teleop

153.3 52%

Endgame

55.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1294, 2412, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1294, 2412, 2522

Auto

38.3 17%

Teleop

126.5 57%

Endgame

57.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score299.9pts

Blue projected score232.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.3
Score range: 197–336
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 198.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

700.8Season APEX561.4

83.8Auto38.3

153.3Teleop126.5

55.7Endgame57.4

61Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	28
teleop	67	135
endgame	30	50
foul	0	15
total	183	228

Result

Final score

183 – 228

Prediction missed · off by 60.7 pts

Match videos

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