Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.04 – 104.37

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.8 ±11

8302⚡️ Ｎｉ-ＴＲＯ ⚡️

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 22.36Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 86.19Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 72.49Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.5 ±11.1

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 23.75Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 36.48Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 44.14Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8302, 3218, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

181 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8302, 3218, 1318

Auto

33.2 18%

Teleop

98.4 55%

Endgame

48.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2557, 2928, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2557, 2928, 4450

Auto

17.0 17%

Teleop

50.7 51%

Endgame

31.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181pts

Blue projected score104.4pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.7
Score range: 80–205
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 135.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.8Season APEX413.5

33.2Auto17

98.4Teleop50.7

48.5Endgame31.2

9Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	24
teleop	107	126
endgame	57	48
foul	0	0
total	200	198

Result

Final score

200 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 56.3 pts

Match videos

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