Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.91 – 185.57

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 94.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.2 ±9.9

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 131.03Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 28.53Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 95.35Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.8 ±9.8

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 83.43Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 87.5Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 14.64Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 360, 3393, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 360, 3393, 9450

Auto

49.6 20%

Teleop

148.7 59%

Endgame

54.3 21%

Strengths

· 360 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 492, 8896

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2412, 492, 8896

Auto

37.7 21%

Teleop

105.8 59%

Endgame

36.5 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.9pts

Blue projected score185.6pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.3
Score range: 162–279
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 135.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.2Season APEX436.8

49.6Auto37.7

148.7Teleop105.8

54.3Endgame36.5

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	46
teleop	51	116
endgame	28	56
foul	5	0
total	99	218

Result

Final score

99 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 94.2 pts

Match videos

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