Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.1 – 122.42

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.5 ±11.1

2557SOTAbots

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 19.42Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 33.45Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 39.23Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.2 ±11

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 46.41Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 47.61Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 28.4Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2557, 2928, 4450

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2557, 2928, 4450

Auto

16.5 18%

Teleop

43.3 48%

Endgame

29.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4980, 8248, 2976

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4980, 8248, 2976

Auto

19.7 16%

Teleop

62.3 50%

Endgame

43.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.1pts

Blue projected score122.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.3
Score range: 68–146
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 133.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.5Season APEX298.2

16.5Auto19.7

43.3Teleop62.3

29.6Endgame43.3

49Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	27
teleop	87	59
endgame	39	18
foul	20	0
total	166	104

Result

Final score

166 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 pts

Match videos

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