Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.18 – 64.79

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.9 ±11.6

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 51.73Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 37.63Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 39.82Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.8 ±12.7

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 32.28Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX 13.48Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9446C Cubed

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 19.03Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7461, 10416, 4911

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7461, 10416, 4911

Auto

24.4 19%

Teleop

67.8 54%

Endgame

33.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2147, 5941, 9446

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2147, 5941, 9446

Auto

4.8 8%

Teleop

33.4 54%

Endgame

23.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.2pts

Blue projected score64.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.4
Score range: 41–153
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 133.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.9Season APEX202.8

24.4Auto4.8

67.8Teleop33.4

33.5Endgame23.4

15Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	5
teleop	140	31
endgame	35	36
foul	0	0
total	206	72

Result

Final score

206 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 42 pts

Match videos

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