Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

357.35 – 127.41

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

390 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.5 ±9.5

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 171.39Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 177.94Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 8.02Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.9 ±11.6

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 51.87Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 37.15Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 38.39Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2046, 948, 5588

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2046, 948, 5588

Auto

64.7 19%

Teleop

204.1 59%

Endgame

75.0 22%

Strengths

· 948 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7461, 10416, 4911

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7461, 10416, 4911

Auto

22.6 18%

Teleop

65.7 53%

Endgame

35.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score357.3pts

Blue projected score127.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 229.9
Score range: 104–380
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 545 vs event baseline 128.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.5Season APEX330.9

64.7Auto22.6

204.1Teleop65.7

75Endgame35.3

22Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	33
teleop	171	83
endgame	131	34
foul	0	5
total	390	155

Result

Final score

390 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Match videos

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