Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.58 – 215.49

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

301 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.5 ±9.5

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 166.01Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX -0.38Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 172.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.2 ±9.9

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 117.31Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 15.01Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 83.17Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2046, 5588, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2046, 5588, 948

Auto

70.4 21%

Teleop

182.1 55%

Endgame

78.8 24%

Strengths

· 948 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 360, 3393, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 360, 3393, 9450

Auto

47.6 23%

Teleop

120.0 57%

Endgame

43.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score338.6pts

Blue projected score215.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.1
Score range: 190–364
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 137.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.5Season APEX520.2

70.4Auto47.6

182.1Teleop120

78.8Endgame43.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	22
teleop	138	88
endgame	87	26
foul	15	20
total	301	156

Result

Final score

301 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 48.5 pts

Match videos

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