Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.23 – 182.87

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.2 ±9.9

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 119.98Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 17.66Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 85.59Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.8 ±11

8302⚡️ Ｎｉ-ＴＲＯ ⚡️

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 23.54Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 86.59Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 72.74Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 360, 3393, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 360, 3393, 9450

Auto

46.5 21%

Teleop

126.6 58%

Endgame

46.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8302, 3218, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8302, 3218, 1318

Auto

33.2 18%

Teleop

99.0 54%

Endgame

49.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score223.2pts

Blue projected score182.9pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.4
Score range: 158–248
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 137.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.2Season APEX316.8

46.5Auto33.2

126.6Teleop99

46.9Endgame49.9

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	24
teleop	71	51
endgame	21	33
foul	10	0
total	157	108

Result

Final score

157 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 pts

Match videos

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