Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

355.88 – 192.39

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

232 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 96.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.5 ±9.5

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 171.21Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 6.29Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 178.38Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.8 ±9.8

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 86.14Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 90.03Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 16.22Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2046, 5588, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2046, 5588, 948

Auto

68.0 20%

Teleop

195.0 56%

Endgame

84.5 24%

Strengths

· 948 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 492, 8896

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2412, 492, 8896

Auto

39.2 21%

Teleop

108.5 58%

Endgame

40.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score355.9pts

Blue projected score192.4pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.5
Score range: 167–381
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 493 vs event baseline 136.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.5Season APEX436.8

68Auto39.2

195Teleop108.5

84.5Endgame40.1

0Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	50
teleop	103	167
endgame	43	34
foul	0	10
total	232	261

Result

Final score

232 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 96.2 pts

Match videos

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