Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.39 – 141.31

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.2 ±9.9

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 121.48Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 19.05Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 86.86Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.9 ±11.6

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 56.37Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 40.52Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 44.42Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 360, 3393, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 360, 3393, 9450

Auto

43.5 19%

Teleop

131.6 59%

Endgame

49.4 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7461, 10416, 4911

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7461, 10416, 4911

Auto

25.5 18%

Teleop

79.4 57%

Endgame

33.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.4pts

Blue projected score141.3pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.1
Score range: 116–252
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 136.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.2Season APEX330.9

43.5Auto25.5

131.6Teleop79.4

49.4Endgame33.6

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	29
teleop	95	66
endgame	29	31
foul	5	5
total	195	131

Result

Final score

195 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Match videos

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