Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

93.51 – 64.36

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 143.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.6 ±10.5

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 37.29Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4980Canine Crusaders

Season APEX 52.1Event APEX 16.93Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 39.29Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461 ±11.4

3049BremerTron

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 5.71Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 58.36Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3393Horns of Havoc

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 0.29Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 492, 4980, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 492, 4980, 9450

Auto

23.3 26%

Teleop

53.3 59%

Endgame

13.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3049, 2046, 3393

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3049, 2046, 3393

Auto

15.1 27%

Teleop

38.9 69%

Endgame

2.3 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.5pts

Blue projected score64.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.2
Score range: 50–108
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 445 vs event baseline 78.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.6Season APEX461

23.3Auto15.1

53.3Teleop38.9

13.6Endgame2.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	38
teleop	155	110
endgame	30	54
foul	0	0
total	243	202

Result

Final score

243 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 143.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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