Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.13 – 124.46

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.8 ±10

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 30.38Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 27.5Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 165.25Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324 ±11

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 18.26Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7461Sushi Squad

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 44.5Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 61.7Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10416, 2147, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10416, 2147, 2046

Auto

40.9 18%

Teleop

119.5 54%

Endgame

62.5 28%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1983, 7461, 1318

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1983, 7461, 1318

Auto

33.7 26%

Teleop

66.9 53%

Endgame

26.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score223.1pts

Blue projected score124.5pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.7
Score range: 101–246
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 126.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.8Season APEX324

40.9Auto33.7

119.5Teleop66.9

62.5Endgame26.7

19Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	65
teleop	112	85
endgame	82	44
foul	50	15
total	303	209

Result

Final score

303 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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