Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

71.07 – 37

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

59 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.3 ±12.7

9446C Cubed

Season APEX 71.3Event APEX 26.79Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5588Reign Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 14.74Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 29.54Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.3 ±12.8

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 28.33Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2929Emeral Ridge JAGBOTS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 4.09Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10423CB Tech

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 4.58Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9446, 5588, 2147

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9446, 5588, 2147

Auto

3.1 4%

Teleop

50.8 73%

Endgame

15.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2976, 2929, 10423

/ 100 compat

Projected

37 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2976, 2929, 10423

Auto

5.9 17%

Teleop

22.4 63%

Endgame

7.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.1pts

Blue projected score37pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.1
Score range: 15–93
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 98 vs event baseline 121.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.3Season APEX255.3

3.1Auto5.9

50.8Teleop22.4

15.6Endgame7

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	4
teleop	36	24
endgame	22	6
foul	0	5
total	59	39

Result

Final score

59 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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