Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.54 – 25.57

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.7 ±10.5

5941Cast Iron Orcas

Season APEX 36Event APEX 5.83Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 40.02Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 180.69Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.4 ±12.2

10455Bison Dynamics

Season APEX 89Event APEX -10.74Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 8.18Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4911CyberKnights

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 28.13Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5941, 8248, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5941, 8248, 948

Auto

29.8 14%

Teleop

119.4 55%

Endgame

69.3 32%

Strengths

· 948 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10455, 1983, 4911

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.6 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10455, 1983, 4911

Auto

11.7 48%

Teleop

10.8 44%

Endgame

1.8 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.5pts

Blue projected score25.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 201
Score range: 4–249
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.7Season APEX285.4

29.8Auto11.7

119.4Teleop10.8

69.3Endgame1.8

21Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	14
teleop	180	31
endgame	79	29
foul	0	15
total	305	89

Result

Final score

305 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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