Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.75 – 47.96

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.5 ±12.2

2929Emeral Ridge JAGBOTS

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 3.83Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 30.21Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2147CHUCK

Season APEX 95.5Event APEX 33.71Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.3 ±13.3

8303GatorBytes

Season APEX 31.7Event APEX 6.57Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2928Viking Robotics

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 42.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3049BremerTron

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX -1.28Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2929, 1983, 2147

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2929, 1983, 2147

Auto

12.2 20%

Teleop

28.5 46%

Endgame

20.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8303, 2928, 3049

/ 100 compat

Projected

48 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8303, 2928, 3049

Auto

11.2 25%

Teleop

21.3 47%

Endgame

13.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.8pts

Blue projected score48pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.8
Score range: 23–93
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 34 vs event baseline 141.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.5Season APEX195.3

12.2Auto11.2

28.5Teleop21.3

20.7Endgame13

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	8
teleop	0	12
endgame	11	0
foul	0	0
total	14	20

Result

Final score

14 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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